Can the EU achieve 45% of energy from renewable sources by 2030?

The EU could be overestimating the amount of wind power roll-out necessary to meet decarbonisation targets.

Due to improvements in wind turbine technology, the amount of wind power capacity needed, in order to reach the aim of generating 45% of energy demands from renewable resources by 2030, needs to be reassessed.

It should be noted that this 45% is more than double the current rate of 22%.

Originally to meet decarbonisation goals, member states needed to hit 510GW of wind capacity by 2030. Nonetheless, the improved capacity and efficiency of recently installed wind turbines have not been taken into consideration.

Considering the improved efficiency, a lower capacity of 440GW should be enough to reach decarbonisation targets.

Furthermore, the EC’s figures suggested an average capacity factor of only 27% for onshore turbines, on top of only 35% for offshore turbines. Despite this, it has recently come to light that capacity factors are now even higher, at 35% for onshore and nearly 50% for offshore.

As a result, not as much wind capacity needs to be added on to reach the aim of generating 45% of its energy renewably by 2030.

Regardless of this news, even when considering the improvements wind turbines have made in recent years, a large roll-out of new wind farms in Europe is still necessary for the coming years.

To reach the target, around 31GW of new wind energy ideally must be installed each year until 2030. Unfortunately, last year only just over 16GW was installed suggesting that we are far behind schedule.

With this, it has been estimated that only 20GW each year will be installed, over the next five-year period. This will call for large increases in the last few years running up to 2030 if the target is going to be met.

With this critical knowledge, now is the time to be investing in supply chains to ensure that the necessary high numbers can be delivered over those final years. It’s thought that around 44GW will need to be installed in 2029.

Now is the time for the EU to take action.